As Donald Trump secures his return to the White House, Canada's healthcare landscape faces potential transformation. From drug pricing to cross-border medical cooperation, stakeholders across the country are preparing for a new chapter in Canada-U.S. healthcare relations.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's congratulatory statement emphasized the strong and longstanding partnership between Canada and the U.S., highlighting their shared history and the successful renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement(CUSMA) under Trump’s first term, noting that bilateral trade has surged, reaching over $1.3 trillion in 2023.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, through president and chief executive officer Candace Laing, reinforced the importance of preserving this economic partnership, noting the $3.6 billion in daily trade while urging close collaboration to resist potential tariffs and trade barriers.
As Canadian cabinet ministers call for calm amid Trump's promises of tariffs and tighter immigration policies, InnovationMinister François-Philippe Champagne has assured industries that Canada's strategic importance in sectors like critical minerals and energy will remain a priority in future trade negotiations. Provincial leaders are also taking action, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli planning a "charm offensive" in Washington and key U.S. states to promote Ontario's critical minerals, energy, and electric vehicle manufacturing. Meanwhile, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has emphasized the value of Manitoba goods and critical minerals for the American defence sector, despite concerns over Trump's proposed 10% tariffs.
The healthcare sector faces particular uncertainty under Trump's second-term agenda. His campaign hinted at revisiting policies from his first term, including international reference pricing for drugs and potential changes to the Affordable Care Act. Some sectors fear that the U.S. Medicaid program could face cuts as Republicans seek spending reductions to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. However, the program's shift to private insurers and support from rural hospitals may offer some protection.
Analysts discussing these developments in this week's Canada-U.S. newsletter analysts discussed how Trump's re-election could challenge Canadian competitiveness, particularly with the threat of new tariffs and trade tensions. Experts warned that Trump's aggressive economic policies, including tariffs and defence spending demands, could strain Canada's economy and its relationship with the U.S. However, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie argued that Canada could benefit from aligning more closely with Trump’s pro-growth policies, which emphasize reducing barriers to business and fostering a thriving private sector.
Against this backdrop of international uncertainty, Canada's own healthcare spending is projected to reach unprecedented levels. The Canadian Institute for Health Information's annual report reveals healthcare expenditures will hit $372 billion in 2024, equating to $9,054 per capita. This 5.7% increase follows a trend of rising health expenditures in recent years, driven by the growing and aging population.
The introduction of new federal programs such as dental and Pharmacare plans is expected to further increase costs as more Canadians gain access to essential health services. Health spending is also forecast to account for 12.4% of Canada's gross domestic product, the highest level outside of the pandemic years.
These rising costs mirror growing public concerns. The Salvation Army's "2024 Canadian Poverty and SocioeconomicAnalysis" reveals healthcare as a primary worry among Canadians, with 59% of respondents ranking it as their top concern. The survey, gathering data from over 1,500 Canadians, indicates that healthcare anxieties extend beyond mere cost-of-living challenges, intertwining with other social issues like housing insecurity at 44%.
As Canada navigates these challenges, there's growing support for innovative healthcare solutions. An online survey by spark*insights reported that about 80% of Canadians deem it crucial for their health benefits plan to cover virtual care. Among 1,815 adult respondents, about two-thirds hope for federal government intervention to encourage employer-provided virtual care benefits. This push for digital health solutions suggests a desire to strengthen Canada's independent healthcare capabilities amid international uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Statistics Canada unveiled in a recent survey that the majority of First Nations People, Métis, and Inuit found it crucial to include Indigenous traditional medicines and wellness practices in healthcare services. The survey also emphasized that nearly one in five Indigenous people experience unfair treatment, racism, or discrimination from healthcare professionals, limiting their access to quality care.
As Canada balances international pressures with domestic healthcare priorities, these developments underscore the complex challenges ahead. Stay tuned to Delphic Research for ongoing analysis of how these changes might reshape Canada's healthcare landscape.
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